Odds To Win Ncaa College Basketball Championship
College basketball futures tend to be even more unpredictable than futures in most other sports. You have a huge field of potential teams to start with. With just five starters and thirteen players in total on each team, there is potential there for one or two excellent players to overcome a team that has better talent overall. College basketball teams are also notoriously streaky with regards to shooting, so if a team gets hot or cold at the right time their fortunes can change on a dime. This is nowhere more apparent than the NCAA Tournament, where top teams often fall in the early rounds to smaller schools.
And there are a number of serious contenders to win the 2021 NCAA Championship as we look at the 2021 NCAA Tournaments odds from William Hill Sportsbook. Notable 2021 NCAA Tournament odds Gonzaga Bulldogs +280 Baylor Bears +350. They come in at No. 11 in odds to win a national championship at +2000. Duke lost three of its last four games in February, and the Blue Devils’ odds continue to decline. Before the season started, Duke was listed as +700 to win, up to +1200 last week and now the +2000 mark.
The table below lists the top teams according to the odds at BetOnline sportsbook.
Vegas Betting Favorites to Win the Final Four & 2021 NCAA Tournament
Here’s a look at the projected Final 4 and championship matchups and winner based on current market odds.
2021 March Madness Futures Odds
Projected Final Four: Gonzaga, Baylor, Iowa, Illinois
Projected Championship Matchup: Gonzaga vs Baylor
Projected NCAA Tournament Champions: Gonzaga
| Team | 2019-20 Record | Conference | Scoring Margin | Odds | Change | NCAA Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gonzaga | 3-0 | West Coast | 13.3 | +400 | +500 | 9.86% |
| Baylor | 4-0 | Big 12 | 27.0 | +850 | +50 | 5.19% |
| Iowa | 6-0 | Big Ten | 32.0 | +900 | -150 | 4.93% |
| Illinois | 5-2 | Big Ten | 21.3 | +1000 | +400 | 4.48% |
| Villanova | 5-1 | Big East | 10.2 | +1200 | -500 | 3.79% |
| West Virginia | 6-1 | Big 12 | 8.3 | +1600 | None | 2.90% |
| Kansas | 6-1 | Big 12 | 10.5 | +1800 | -600 | 2.59% |
| Michigan State | 6-0 | Big Ten | 12.5 | +1800 | -200 | 2.59% |
| Texas Tech | 6-1 | Big 12 | 23.7 | +1800 | +400 | 2.59% |
| Virginia | 3-1 | ACC | 16.5 | +1800 | -600 | 2.59% |
| Creighton | 4-2 | Big East | 15.2 | +2000 | -200 | 2.35% |
| Tennessee | 3-0 | SEC | 19.7 | +2000 | +200 | 2.35% |
| Texas | 5-1 | Big 12 | 13.2 | +2000 | +4000 | 2.35% |
| Duke | 2-2 | ACC | 2.8 | +2500 | -1100 | 1.90% |
| Florida State | 4-0 | ACC | 13.8 | +2500 | -700 | 1.90% |
| Houston | 4-0 | AAC | 18.8 | +2500 | +1000 | 1.90% |
| Indiana | 4-2 | Big Ten | 13.0 | +2800 | +1200 | 1.70% |
| Kentucky | 1-4 | SEC | 0.6 | +2800 | -1700 | 1.70% |
| North Carolina | 4-2 | ACC | 6.8 | +2800 | -1000 | 1.70% |
| Wisconsin | 5-1 | Big Ten | 17.8 | +2800 | -1200 | 1.70% |
| Ohio State | 5-0 | Big Ten | 16.2 | +3300 | -300 | 1.45% |
| San Diego State | 5-0 | MWC | 12.8 | +3300 | -1300 | 1.45% |
| Arizona State | 4-2 | Pac-12 | 2.8 | +4000 | None | 1.20% |
| Connecticut | 3-0 | AAC | 14.0 | +4000 | +1000 | 1.20% |
| Florida | 3-1 | SEC | 15.2 | +4000 | -1000 | 1.20% |
| LSU | 4-1 | SEC | 23.0 | +4000 | None | 1.20% |
| Michigan | 6-0 | Big Ten | 14.8 | +4000 | -1500 | 1.20% |
| Oregon | 4-1 | Pac-12 | 9.2 | +4000 | -1200 | 1.20% |
| Alabama | 4-2 | SEC | 5.0 | +5000 | New | 0.97% |
| Arizona | 5-0 | Pac-12 | 19.6 | +5000 | None | 0.97% |
| Arkansas | 6-0 | SEC | 33.8 | +5000 | +3000 | 0.97% |
| Louisville | 4-0 | ACC | 19.8 | +5000 | -1700 | 0.97% |
| Richmond | 4-1 | A-10 | 5.8 | +5000 | +3000 | 0.97% |
| St. Louis | 5-0 | A-10 | 27.2 | +5000 | New | 0.97% |
| UCLA | 5-1 | Pac-12 | 12.7 | +5000 | -2000 | 0.97% |
| Maryland | 4-2 | Big Ten | 11.5 | +6600 | -1600 | 0.74% |
| Purdue | 4-2 | Big Ten | 10.0 | +6600 | +1400 | 0.74% |
| Rutgers | 5-0 | Big Ten | 16.4 | +6600 | -600 | 0.74% |
| SMU | 4-0 | AAC | 24.0 | +6600 | +8400 | 0.74% |
| Stanford | 3-2 | Pac-12 | 8.2 | +6600 | -1600 | 0.74% |
| USC | 4-1 | Pac-12 | 16.0 | +6600 | -600 | 0.74% |
| Auburn | 4-2 | SEC | 0.5 | +8000 | -4000 | 0.61% |
| Clemson | 5-1 | ACC | 12.8 | +8000 | New | 0.61% |
| Colorado | 3-1 | Pac-12 | 17.0 | +8000 | +2000 | 0.61% |
| Dayton | 3-1 | A-10 | 2.5 | +8000 | None | 0.61% |
| Memphis | 4-3 | AAC | 11.4 | +8000 | -500 | 0.61% |
| Minnesota | 6-1 | Big Ten | 9.1 | +8000 | +2000 | 0.61% |
| Xavier | 7-0 | Big East | 17.1 | +8000 | New | 0.61% |
| Butler | 1-0 | Big East | 4.0 | +10000 | None | 0.49% |
| BYU | 6-2 | West Coast | 6.3 | +10000 | -2000 | 0.49% |
| Marquette | 5-2 | Big East | 10.1 | +10000 | None | 0.49% |
| Miami FL | 3-1 | ACC | 10.0 | +10000 | -2000 | 0.49% |
| Missouri | 5-0 | SEC | 11.4 | +10000 | New | 0.49% |
| NC State | 3-0 | ACC | 33.3 | +10000 | New | 0.49% |
| Northern Iowa | 1-4 | MVC | -7.2 | +10000 | New | 0.49% |
| Oklahoma | 3-1 | Big 12 | 13.0 | +10000 | None | 0.49% |
| Penn State | 3-2 | Big Ten | 6.8 | +10000 | None | 0.49% |
| Providence | 4-2 | Big East | 4.2 | +10000 | New | 0.49% |
| South Carolina | 1-2 | SEC | -5.0 | +10000 | +5000 | 0.49% |
| Syracuse | 4-1 | ACC | 18.8 | +10000 | +2500 | 0.49% |
| VCU | 6-2 | A-10 | 14.2 | +10000 | +5000 | 0.49% |
| Virginia Tech | 5-1 | ACC | 5.7 | +10000 | +5000 | 0.49% |
| Western Kentucky | 5-2 | C-USA | 2.4 | +10000 | New | 0.49% |
| Boise State | 4-1 | MWC | 9.0 | +12500 | New | 0.39% |
| Cincinnati | 2-2 | AAC | 0.0 | +12500 | +7500 | 0.39% |
| Georgia Tech | 2-3 | ACC | 0.4 | +12500 | +12500 | 0.39% |
| Notre Dame | 2-2 | ACC | -1.5 | +12500 | +12500 | 0.39% |
| Pittsburgh | 4-1 | ACC | 9.4 | +12500 | +12500 | 0.39% |
| Seton Hall | 4-3 | Big East | 6.1 | +12500 | -9200 | 0.39% |
| St. Mary’s CA | 7-1 | West Coast | 10.6 | +12500 | New | 0.39% |
| Temple | 0-0 | AAC | — | +12500 | +12500 | 0.39% |
| UNLV | 1-4 | MWC | -9.2 | +12500 | +2500 | 0.39% |
| Washington | 1-4 | Pac-12 | -6.8 | +12500 | New | 0.39% |
| Wichita State | 2-2 | AAC | -1.0 | +12500 | New | 0.39% |
| Utah | 3-1 | Pac-12 | 5.0 | +15000 | New | 0.33% |
| Utah State | 2-3 | MWC | -8.0 | +15000 | New | 0.33% |
| Georgetown | 3-3 | Big East | 2.3 | +20000 | -5000 | 0.25% |
| Mississippi State | 3-3 | SEC | 3.5 | +20000 | +5000 | 0.25% |
| Rhode Island | 3-4 | A-10 | 2.4 | +20000 | -5000 | 0.25% |
| Davidson | 3-3 | A-10 | 5.2 | +25000 | -10000 | 0.20% |
| DePaul | 0-0 | Big East | — | +25000 | New | 0.20% |
Included in the table below are the regular season records for each team last year, their conference, Power Index (average margin of victory last season), current odds, change in the odds since last week’s update, and the normalized implied probability to win the NCAA Tournament based on the current market odds.
We’ve included the probability for each team to win the tournament based on the odds and the field listed (NCAA Tournament column). It is sometimes easier to grasp what the odds are trying to say when thinking in terms of percentage probability versus how much a $100 bet would payout (e.g. +500 means a $100 bet would pay out $500). The change column shows how much the odds have improved or decreased for that team since our last update. If a team is “New” this means they were not listed as of our previous update. Our Power Index is the approximate number of points a team would be favored by on a neutral court against an average college basketball team.
Be sure to check out the daily college basketball odds each night of the season to see if there is any value with these teams or others.
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Below are the most recent odds to win the 2021 NCAA Tournament.
We will be back to look at the odds at several points throughout the season, so be sure to check back often. Our college basketball lines pages let’s you compare the live numbers from several top books.
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Betting Odds & Favorites to Win the 2021 NCAA Basketball Tournament
Past Champions & Their Chances of Winning the Final Four
The table below lists the championship team for each season. The preseason column shows each team’s preseason chances to win the tournament.
Since the 2007 tournament, the Connecticut Huskies have the two biggest upsets in terms of overcoming their preseason odds. Both of those title games were interesting because of the seeds.
At 70 to 1 prior to the 2013-2014 season, UConn pulled off one of the most unlikely championships at any level. They entered the tournament as a 7 seed and went on to win as the second-lowest winning seed in NCAA history (#8 Villanova – 1985). It was the highest total seeds to make the championship game when the Huskies as a 7 seed took down the 8 seed Kentucky.
2011 was also interesting because they beat another 8-seed. This time it was the Butler Bulldogs. So, two massive upsets for UConn, but then again they had the easiest title games in recent memory too. If you think you can pick a massive underdog like this, just remember to look at our tournament winners by seed. You’ll see the probability of a team worse than 3-see of winning it all is very low.
| Season | Team | Preseason |
|---|---|---|
| 2019-2020 | Tournament Cancelled | Covid-19 |
| 2018-2019 | Virginia | +1800 |
| 2017-2018 | Villanova | +1200 |
| 2016-2017 | North Carolina | +1200 |
| 2015-2016 | Villanova | +2000 |
| 2014-2015 | Duke | +1000 |
| 2013-2014 | Connecticut | +7000 |
| 2012-2013 | Louisville | +800 |
| 2011-2012 | Kentucky | +550 |
| 2010-2011 | Connecticut | +4000 |
| 2009-2010 | Duke | +1200 |
| 2008-2009 | North Carolina | +450 |
| 2007-2008 | Kansas | +1000 |
| 2006-2007 | Florida | +530 |
Handicapping Who Has the Best Chance to Win
So how do you go about picking which team will conquer March Madness and cut down the nets? There is a lot that goes into handicapping postseason games. Throw motivation out the window. Nobody is taking these games lightly.
Ncaa College Basketball Schedule
Does a team get to place close to home? They are worth a look. Is there a team that is over-rated? That’s not saying they can’t win it all, but it will typically drive all value out of their line. Kentucky is 2015 was a good example. They came into the tournament undefeated and everyone expected them to run the table. The number got down to less than even money and of course, they were beat.
Instead, look at a few sleepers that have a chance. Don’t ignore how each seed has performed. Trust coaches with a history of success over unknowns. Lastly, remember that no team seeded worse than 8th has made the championship game.
Odds To Win Ncaa College Basketball Championship Predictions
Don’t want such a long shot but really like a team? Check out their odds to win their conference tournament. Not nearly as much competition or level of difficulty required.