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4/4/2022
Odds To Win Ncaa College Basketball Championship Average ratng: 4,6/5 1455 votes
Championship

College basketball futures tend to be even more unpredictable than futures in most other sports. You have a huge field of potential teams to start with. With just five starters and thirteen players in total on each team, there is potential there for one or two excellent players to overcome a team that has better talent overall. College basketball teams are also notoriously streaky with regards to shooting, so if a team gets hot or cold at the right time their fortunes can change on a dime. This is nowhere more apparent than the NCAA Tournament, where top teams often fall in the early rounds to smaller schools.

And there are a number of serious contenders to win the 2021 NCAA Championship as we look at the 2021 NCAA Tournaments odds from William Hill Sportsbook. Notable 2021 NCAA Tournament odds Gonzaga Bulldogs +280 Baylor Bears +350. They come in at No. 11 in odds to win a national championship at +2000. Duke lost three of its last four games in February, and the Blue Devils’ odds continue to decline. Before the season started, Duke was listed as +700 to win, up to +1200 last week and now the +2000 mark.

The table below lists the top teams according to the odds at BetOnline sportsbook.

Vegas Betting Favorites to Win the Final Four & 2021 NCAA Tournament

Here’s a look at the projected Final 4 and championship matchups and winner based on current market odds.

2021 March Madness Futures Odds

Projected Final Four: Gonzaga, Baylor, Iowa, Illinois

Projected Championship Matchup: Gonzaga vs Baylor

Odds To Win Ncaa College Basketball Championship

Projected NCAA Tournament Champions: Gonzaga

Team2019-20 RecordConferenceScoring MarginOddsChangeNCAA Tournament
Gonzaga3-0West Coast13.3+400+5009.86%
Baylor4-0Big 1227.0+850+505.19%
Iowa6-0Big Ten32.0+900-1504.93%
Illinois5-2Big Ten21.3+1000+4004.48%
Villanova5-1Big East10.2+1200-5003.79%
West Virginia6-1Big 128.3+1600None2.90%
Kansas6-1Big 1210.5+1800-6002.59%
Michigan State6-0Big Ten12.5+1800-2002.59%
Texas Tech6-1Big 1223.7+1800+4002.59%
Virginia3-1ACC16.5+1800-6002.59%
Creighton4-2Big East15.2+2000-2002.35%
Tennessee3-0SEC19.7+2000+2002.35%
Texas5-1Big 1213.2+2000+40002.35%
Duke2-2ACC2.8+2500-11001.90%
Florida State4-0ACC13.8+2500-7001.90%
Houston4-0AAC18.8+2500+10001.90%
Indiana4-2Big Ten13.0+2800+12001.70%
Kentucky1-4SEC0.6+2800-17001.70%
North Carolina4-2ACC6.8+2800-10001.70%
Wisconsin5-1Big Ten17.8+2800-12001.70%
Ohio State5-0Big Ten16.2+3300-3001.45%
San Diego State5-0MWC12.8+3300-13001.45%
Arizona State4-2Pac-122.8+4000None1.20%
Connecticut3-0AAC14.0+4000+10001.20%
Florida3-1SEC15.2+4000-10001.20%
LSU4-1SEC23.0+4000None1.20%
Michigan6-0Big Ten14.8+4000-15001.20%
Oregon4-1Pac-129.2+4000-12001.20%
Alabama4-2SEC5.0+5000New0.97%
Arizona5-0Pac-1219.6+5000None0.97%
Arkansas6-0SEC33.8+5000+30000.97%
Louisville4-0ACC19.8+5000-17000.97%
Richmond4-1A-105.8+5000+30000.97%
St. Louis5-0A-1027.2+5000New0.97%
UCLA5-1Pac-1212.7+5000-20000.97%
Maryland4-2Big Ten11.5+6600-16000.74%
Purdue4-2Big Ten10.0+6600+14000.74%
Rutgers5-0Big Ten16.4+6600-6000.74%
SMU4-0AAC24.0+6600+84000.74%
Stanford3-2Pac-128.2+6600-16000.74%
USC4-1Pac-1216.0+6600-6000.74%
Auburn4-2SEC0.5+8000-40000.61%
Clemson5-1ACC12.8+8000New0.61%
Colorado3-1Pac-1217.0+8000+20000.61%
Dayton3-1A-102.5+8000None0.61%
Memphis4-3AAC11.4+8000-5000.61%
Minnesota6-1Big Ten9.1+8000+20000.61%
Xavier7-0Big East17.1+8000New0.61%
Butler1-0Big East4.0+10000None0.49%
BYU6-2West Coast6.3+10000-20000.49%
Marquette5-2Big East10.1+10000None0.49%
Miami FL3-1ACC10.0+10000-20000.49%
Missouri5-0SEC11.4+10000New0.49%
NC State3-0ACC33.3+10000New0.49%
Northern Iowa1-4MVC-7.2+10000New0.49%
Oklahoma3-1Big 1213.0+10000None0.49%
Penn State3-2Big Ten6.8+10000None0.49%
Providence4-2Big East4.2+10000New0.49%
South Carolina1-2SEC-5.0+10000+50000.49%
Syracuse4-1ACC18.8+10000+25000.49%
VCU6-2A-1014.2+10000+50000.49%
Virginia Tech5-1ACC5.7+10000+50000.49%
Western Kentucky5-2C-USA2.4+10000New0.49%
Boise State4-1MWC9.0+12500New0.39%
Cincinnati2-2AAC0.0+12500+75000.39%
Georgia Tech2-3ACC0.4+12500+125000.39%
Notre Dame2-2ACC-1.5+12500+125000.39%
Pittsburgh4-1ACC9.4+12500+125000.39%
Seton Hall4-3Big East6.1+12500-92000.39%
St. Mary’s CA7-1West Coast10.6+12500New0.39%
Temple0-0AAC+12500+125000.39%
UNLV1-4MWC-9.2+12500+25000.39%
Washington1-4Pac-12-6.8+12500New0.39%
Wichita State2-2AAC-1.0+12500New0.39%
Utah3-1Pac-125.0+15000New0.33%
Utah State2-3MWC-8.0+15000New0.33%
Georgetown3-3Big East2.3+20000-50000.25%
Mississippi State3-3SEC3.5+20000+50000.25%
Rhode Island3-4A-102.4+20000-50000.25%
Davidson3-3A-105.2+25000-100000.20%
DePaul0-0Big East+25000New0.20%

Included in the table below are the regular season records for each team last year, their conference, Power Index (average margin of victory last season), current odds, change in the odds since last week’s update, and the normalized implied probability to win the NCAA Tournament based on the current market odds.

We’ve included the probability for each team to win the tournament based on the odds and the field listed (NCAA Tournament column). It is sometimes easier to grasp what the odds are trying to say when thinking in terms of percentage probability versus how much a $100 bet would payout (e.g. +500 means a $100 bet would pay out $500). The change column shows how much the odds have improved or decreased for that team since our last update. If a team is “New” this means they were not listed as of our previous update. Our Power Index is the approximate number of points a team would be favored by on a neutral court against an average college basketball team.

Be sure to check out the daily college basketball odds each night of the season to see if there is any value with these teams or others.

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Below are the most recent odds to win the 2021 NCAA Tournament.

We will be back to look at the odds at several points throughout the season, so be sure to check back often. Our college basketball lines pages let’s you compare the live numbers from several top books.

Odds To Win Ncaa College Basketball Championship
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Betting Odds & Favorites to Win the 2021 NCAA Basketball Tournament

Past Champions & Their Chances of Winning the Final Four

The table below lists the championship team for each season. The preseason column shows each team’s preseason chances to win the tournament.

Since the 2007 tournament, the Connecticut Huskies have the two biggest upsets in terms of overcoming their preseason odds. Both of those title games were interesting because of the seeds.

At 70 to 1 prior to the 2013-2014 season, UConn pulled off one of the most unlikely championships at any level. They entered the tournament as a 7 seed and went on to win as the second-lowest winning seed in NCAA history (#8 Villanova – 1985). It was the highest total seeds to make the championship game when the Huskies as a 7 seed took down the 8 seed Kentucky.

2011 was also interesting because they beat another 8-seed. This time it was the Butler Bulldogs. So, two massive upsets for UConn, but then again they had the easiest title games in recent memory too. If you think you can pick a massive underdog like this, just remember to look at our tournament winners by seed. You’ll see the probability of a team worse than 3-see of winning it all is very low.

SeasonTeamPreseason
2019-2020Tournament CancelledCovid-19
2018-2019Virginia+1800
2017-2018Villanova+1200
2016-2017North Carolina+1200
2015-2016Villanova+2000
2014-2015Duke+1000
2013-2014Connecticut+7000
2012-2013Louisville+800
2011-2012Kentucky+550
2010-2011Connecticut+4000
2009-2010Duke+1200
2008-2009North Carolina+450
2007-2008Kansas+1000
2006-2007Florida+530

Handicapping Who Has the Best Chance to Win

So how do you go about picking which team will conquer March Madness and cut down the nets? There is a lot that goes into handicapping postseason games. Throw motivation out the window. Nobody is taking these games lightly.

Championship

Ncaa College Basketball Schedule

Does a team get to place close to home? They are worth a look. Is there a team that is over-rated? That’s not saying they can’t win it all, but it will typically drive all value out of their line. Kentucky is 2015 was a good example. They came into the tournament undefeated and everyone expected them to run the table. The number got down to less than even money and of course, they were beat.

Instead, look at a few sleepers that have a chance. Don’t ignore how each seed has performed. Trust coaches with a history of success over unknowns. Lastly, remember that no team seeded worse than 8th has made the championship game.

Odds To Win Ncaa College Basketball Championship Predictions

Don’t want such a long shot but really like a team? Check out their odds to win their conference tournament. Not nearly as much competition or level of difficulty required.